Thoughts On CPC Leadership

In the midst of what is going on with COVID-19 and worldwide protests against racism(also some riots) there is a leadership campaign going on in Canada. This is for the Conservative Party Of Canada which is the official opposition here and is sufficient because the next leader could become the next Prime Minister of Canada. Party members are voting by mail-in ballot in August.
The candidates here are:
Peter McKay former MP for Central Nova Nova Scotia and a former cabinet minister in the Stephen Harper government. Was also the last leader of the old Progressive Conservative Party Of Canada until they merged with the Canadian Alliance in 2003.
Erin O’Toole MP for Durham Ontario and a former Minister of Veteran Affairs. Ran unsuccessfully in 2017 leadership race finishing third.
Derek Sloan rookie MP for Hastings-Lennox and Addington.
Leslyn Lewis a lawyer from Toronto who does not a seat in the House Of Commons.
While there are four people in this race, it is clearly a two horse race between McKay and O’Toole. Lewis who is an interesting candidate as she is the black woman to run for the leadership of the CPC is would have higher profile but also very social conservative and the fact she doesn’t have a seat in the House has likely suck her chances. Sloan who is a social conservative made some would say racist remarks about the Chief Public Health official has little or no chance. So it looks McKay and O’Toole will battle it out with McKay being the front runner.
They are looking to succeed Andrew Scheer who despite leading in the popular vote guided The Conservatives to defeat in last year’s election. McKay have a lock on it I wouldn’t count O’Toole out as he quite a lot of support in the party especially with social conservative who give up on the other two.
The main question is who can beat Justin Trudeau as despite having a lot of errors in years of government still managed to win. I would say McKay as he is the most moderate of the bunch(I am reluctant to call him a Red Tory) and would likely seats in more urban areas and in Atlantic Canada where the CPC fared poorly in the last couple elections.O’Toole win appeal more to the rural base as he more of a Blue Tory.
In comes down to who could win in Quebec and the GTA as the CPC needs to win a lot in both of these areas  to form a government.O’Toole has the edge on fundraising but McKay is better known here (as well as all around the country). They will have to have a strong command of the French language and appeal to perhaps the most fickle voting block in Canada. Also, maintain the support the libertarian support in the Quebec City area.As for the GTA,O’Toole is an MP from the area but McKay lives and works in Toronto and the voters here are generally pretty moderate (although Mike Harris and Doug Ford won big here).
They win have to get Canadians to get to know them as support of the CPC is pretty low right now and their minds (understandably) are focused elsewhere. Plus,Trudeau has been a pretty steady hand throughout this crisis.
A couple of interesting to note as all the candidates are from Ontario. Yeah I know McKay is originally from Nova Scotia but he works and lives in Toronto. Also, that no one from Western Canada threw their hat into the ring despite it being their biggest area of support.
In was curious also to see who didn’t run this time around as big names in the party such as Rona Ambrose, John Baird,Jean Charest and Michael Chong among others declined. Perhaps the uphill battle the next leader faces may have something to do with it.
We will see what happens in August.
 

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